Prophecy on the future of Buddhism

It is an article of faith that the Dhamma, knowledge and practice of Buddhism, like everything else, is impermanent, and will not last forever. Buddhism is one of the few religions to predict its own demise. Thus the Dhamma is seen as going through various stages of decline. In Theravada lands, is is said that it will be extinct 5000 years after the Buddha’s is death. Humanity will then have to want many thousands of years for another Buddha. Metteyya, to arise and teach the Dhamma once more. Untill then, it is traditionally believed that morality will gradually decline to a period of chaos and war, when human’s life-span will be only 10 years, before gradually improving until there is a golden age of peace and justice, to capped by the coming of Metteyya. The influence of Metteyya Buddha’s teaching will last longer than that of the last Buddha, but will eventually decline. This will lead on towards another period of chaos, then a change towards another golden age.

This belief that Buddhism wouls last for 5000 years goes back to commentaries on the Canon. The commentator, Buddhaghosa, equates Dhamma with pativedha (realization), which will disappear in five stages of 1000 years each, and pariyatti (learning) will disappear with it, but the Sangha will last even longer. Some other version states; after 5000 years will come the disappearance of five things; relics (dhatu), realisation (pativedha), monks and novices (linga), practice (Patipatti) and religious learinf (pariyatti). The canonical texts will finally disappear in reverse order; first the Abhidhamma Pitaka, beginning with the last book; then the four Nikayas of the Sutta Pitaka beginning with the Anguttara Nikaya and ending with the Digha Nikaya; then the Jatakas; finally the Vinaya Pitaka. Last to go is the Uposatha-kanda. When a king offers a purse of gold to anyone who can recite and there are no takers, learning will have disappeared.

If we compare these canonical commentaries with the present situation of Buddhism, it is clear that Buddhism is far from declining. We are still witnessing all three stages of true Dhamma or Sadhamma in Buddhism; learnin, practice and realization. The pali canon is still intact as it was first recorded nearly 2000 years ago. However, we should treat new interpretations of the original teachings with caution, as the Buddha warned in the Ani Sutta and Samyutta Nikaya.

‘The people of Dasaraha had a drum called Anaka. Later the drum began to spit and they fixed it by replacing new pegs in it, until the time came that the drum’s original drumhead had vanished and only the framework of pegs remained. Even so Buddhists monks etc. Will be like that in the future. Those discourses utteres by the Buddha, deep in meaning, not of the world, dealing with the void, to these when uttered they will not listen, they will not lend a ready car, they will not bring tp them an understanding heart, they will not deem those doctrines that which should be learnt by heart, that which should be mastered.

But those discourse which poets, who are poetry, which are a manifold of words, make. A manifold of phrases, alien the utterances of disciples, to these when uttered they will listen, they will lend a really ear, they will bring an understanding heart, they will deem these doctrines that which should be learnt by heart, which should be mastered. Thus the discourses uttered by the Buddha, deep in meaning, not of the world, dealing with the void, will disappear.

Therefore, the Buddha encouraged his followers to understand of and master original Dhamma which lead to dispassion (viraga); to detachment (visamyoga); to diminution, (apacaya) to wanting little (appicchata), to contentment (santutthi), to seclusion (paviveka), to arousing of energy (viriyarambha) and tp being easy to support (subharata).